Brentwood, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

995
FXUS64 KOHX 290527
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1227 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1225 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

- Unsettled weather through Tuesday with showers and
  thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoons.

- Some storms could produce strong wind gusts, as well as
  localized flooding and frequent lightning.

- Temperatures near normal through mid-week, becoming warmer and
  less humid late week and Independence Day weekend.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday Night)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

The Tennessee and Ohio Valleys were nearly covered by thunderstorm
clusters/outflows at some point today, but activity across Middle TN
has faded due to rain-cooled air taking over for the night. With an
abundance of near surface moisture and dissipating clouds we`ll be
looking for radiation fog development overnight, particularly
east of I-65 and the Plateau. Locally dense fog is also possible.

Conditions Sunday will be very similar to that of Saturday. The low-
amplitude ridge in the region remains subdued by tropical moisture
and a remnant upper-low spinning near the southern Appalachians.
Best moisture values are in place near the Mississippi River where
analyzed PWs are above 2.0". Latest hi-res guidance continues to
suggest convection firing in western TN along residual mesoscale
boundaries, then progressing eastward into Middle TN with
corresponding outflows. It appears activity will start somewhat
early again as SBCAPE climbs to 2,000-3,000 J/kg during the late
morning, with values limited by poor lapse rates. This, and the lack
of deep-layer shear, continues to limit severe weather. However,
strongest storms can produce 40-50 mph wind gusts, heavy
downpours/localized flooding, and frequent lightning.

For Monday, a dip in the Polar Jet is set to move into the Upper
Mississippi Valley, gradually moving southeast closer to the Ohio
Valley Monday evening as the trough amplifies. An associated
front will also move closer to our area, and it appears this
feature should be knocking on the door Monday night. As such,
continued unsettled weather is expected Monday with showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the front, but rain chances will persist
overnight as the front advances southeast. Since other forcing
mechanisms are at play, there`s low confidence on exact timing of
showers and storms. We could end up with a morning wave ahead of
the front, then additional activity late afternoon into the
evening. (NBM PoPs have decreased somewhat with various scenarios
emerging into the initial runs of hi-res guidance).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Best rain chances on Tuesday will remain focused closer to the
(slowly) progressing front, and that`s currently expected across
southern and eastern portions of the area where showers and
thunderstorms could become quite numerous again during the day.
Then, the weather across Middle TN should take a turn for the
better with post-frontal air moving into the region along with
weak northwesterly flow aloft on Wednesday. This will be felt by
lower daytime humidity values, which also correspond to lower
rain chances. Drier weather is expected to persist into the
upcoming 4th of July weekend, though temperatures will be on a
steady increase each day as ridging builds and approaches from the
west. We should be well into the 90s by Independence Day and the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Patchy fog is developing mainly along the plateau which could
affect CSV/SRB through 13z. Scattered storms are expected to fire
late in the morning increasing in coverage through the mid
afternoon. Storm chances will decrease after 00z. Outside of
storms, winds will be southerly around 5 kts or less. If a
terminal is affected by a strong storm, a gust up to 25 kts is
possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      89  74  90  75 /  60  30  70  50
Clarksville    86  73  88  73 /  60  30  70  50
Crossville     84  67  83  68 /  60  30  70  60
Columbia       87  71  87  72 /  70  30  70  50
Cookeville     85  69  84  70 /  60  30  70  60
Jamestown      85  68  84  70 /  60  30  70  60
Lawrenceburg   87  70  87  71 /  60  30  70  50
Murfreesboro   89  72  89  72 /  60  30  70  50
Waverly        85  71  87  71 /  60  40  70  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sizemore
LONG TERM....Sizemore
AVIATION.....Reagan